25 June 2019
The politics of Brexit now seem to be dominated by the election of a new leader of the Conservative Party which should see a victor emerge in July. In the meantime, against the background of this, the EU’s ‘summer holiday’ and our own domestic summer recess, the official ‘leave’ date, deal or no-deal, remains 31st October 2019. The countdown clock, recently seen by many as ‘on-hold’ for a while, has started ticking again with an ever-growing loudness. We can expect to see a resurgence in the amount of official ‘no-deal’ preparation communications coming out as we get closer to October, as well as a re-run of the review of stock-levels and supply chain mitigation planning.
Around Brussels the perception is that EU leaders are now preparing a united and robust ‘Non’ position when it comes to the idea of renegotiating the Brexit deal. In the event that, if, come the autumn, the EU was even tempted to reopen some of those questions eg. the Irish backstop, those discussions could never be concluded by 31st October. That is why some believe that the EU thinks the idea of a no-deal Brexit is becoming increasingly likely. Thanks again to the BBC for the helpful explanatory graphic.